IJIMT 2017 Vol.8(6): 477-481 ISSN: 2010-0248
doi: 10.18178/ijimt.2017.8.6.744

Probabilistic Construction Project Duration Prediction Models for High Rise Building Based on Earned Schedule Method in Jakarta

Basuki Anondho, Ayomi Dita Rarasati, Yusuf Latief, and Khrisna Mochtar
Abstract— Earned value method (EVM) known as one tools to mitigate cost and schedule while it estimates based on cost only. Improvement on EVM method for duration prediction purpose was developed by several previous research emphases on schedule base approach. This paper describes a similar method in duration forecasting with a probabilistic approach in order to accommodate the uncertainty in the developing countries such as Indonesia and compare it with traditional EVM method. Jakarta city was chosen as the biggest city in Indonesia and as capital city of a developing country where high rise building data is easier to find. The comparison purpose is to find out which one better and more accurate on predicting high rise probabilistic project duration in Jakarta. The result show that there is an improvement in accuracy of forecasting probabilistic duration by using earned schedule technique than traditional EVM method.

Index Terms— Earned value, high rise building, schedule base, uncertainty.

Basuki Anondho is with the Universitas Indonesia, Depok, and senior lecturer at Tarumanegara University, Jakarta. Ayomi Dita Rarasati is with the Civil Engineering Department and also senior researcher at the Center for Sustainable Infrastructure Development, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas, Indonesia (e-mail: ayomi@eng.ui.ac.id). Yusuf Latief is with the Construction and Project Management Program, Department of Civil Engineering Universitas, Indonesia. Khrisna Mochtar is with the Construction and Project Management Postgraduate Program, Department of Civil Engineering Universitas Indonesia, and Department of Civil Engineering Institut Teknologi Indonesia.

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Cite: Basuki Anondho, Ayomi Dita Rarasati, Yusuf Latief, and Khrisna Mochtar, " Probabilistic Construction Project Duration Prediction Models for High Rise Building Based on Earned Schedule Method in Jakarta," International Journal of Innovation, Management and Technology vol. 8, no. 6, pp. 477-481, 2017.

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